What a Second Trump Term Means For Africa?

President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited conversations about Africa’s place in a changing world.  In February 2025, at Strathmore University’s Knowledge Café, experts examined the implications of a “Trump 2.0” administration for the continent.

The conversation, which covered everything from trade to sovereignty, painted a worrisome picture: Africa is at a turning point.  Will it reshape its own fate or will it remain impacted by the choices made by outside forces?

The continent’s actions could decide whether it is used as a pawn in the conflicts between global powers or, ultimately, whether it will assert its place at the bargaining table, especially with the renewal of AGOA approaching the reduction of U.S. funding.

AGOA and Brics; What will Africa choose?

African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a trade act that provides eligible sub-Saharan African nations with duty free access to the United states trade market for certain products.

This trade act does benefit eligible nations but it also gives the U.S great influence over them as well. A member nation that pursues a goal that is antagonistic to the U.S is liable to be excluded from AGOA. Effectively, the U.S can strong arm nations by leveraging the loss of the “aid” they provide.

If this trade agreement comes to an end, then the region will be left open to other foreign forces such as BRICS. It must be noted that BRICS might also be motivated to pursue their own ulterior motives after attaining power within the region. For your average African citizen, moving away from AGOA will most likely result in decreased demand for their goods as their largest trade market will vanish.

The new bloc, BRICS, also poses uncertainty as their trade offers may not not be able to compensate for the loss of AGOA access and might use its newfound influence to pursue motives that do not benefit the common citizen.

Reduction of US Aid to Africa

The U.S has played a major role in Africa by being one of the largest contributors of foreign aid, primarily in the form of humanitarian aid and economic stimulus packages.

Much like the AGOA initiative, this provision of foreign aid also serves the purpose of increasing their influence in the continent. Trump, who has always been very outspoken about his stance on putting America first, has already began the process of reducing the amount of foreign aid provided.

While this will force many of the African nations to finally find permanent solutions to their humanitarian and economic problems, these solutions will take time to implement, which will undoubtedly cause suffering to many of the people that once benefited from the foreign aid. As strange as it may seem though, this move also reduces the amount of influence that the U.S has over African countries that no longer depend on the aid provided by the US.

Kenya’s Strategic Value to the United States of America

Kenya is among the Major Non-NATO Allies, but this status is dependent upon the U.S’ perception of the country. Moreover, its position near the Horn of Africa increases its strategic importance to the U.S.

Still, Trump’s opinion of the nation’s utility in the region is liable to change depending on how Kenya handles the conflicts in the region, such as the conflicts within Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

If Kenya’s decisions in relation to the aforementioned conflicts are deemed as resistant to U.S goals, then the nation may lose its status as a Major Non-NATO Ally and cause it to lose military standing.

Thus, Kenya has to find a golden mean between balancing the expectations of the U.S and the country’s own diplomatic gain, all while preventing U.S military proliferation.

U.S vs BRICS: How America Fights its Rivals

The U.S is known for attacking rival countries while manipulating mainstream media to prevent public outcry. Russia, South Africa and China, which are all BRICS members, have been hit with trade sanctions imposed by the U.S.

Brazil has suffered from coups and political instability catalyzed by the U.S and has recently imposed restrictions on Brazilian exports. While not all of these instances occurred in recent years, it sets a precedent for what the U.S is capable of doing to a country that goes against its wishes.

The Importance of African Unity

African Unity is vital for preventing the manipulation of regional powers by external forces. It is imperative that African nations start to ignore the arbitrary boundaries set by colonial powers and prioritize their unity, such that Africa may act as a single body.

When the various African nations act as lone agents, they are susceptible to manipulation by foreign powers as each country tries to serve its own interest to the detriment of the region.

Conclusion

As shown above, Africa is at a crossroads and must make a decision between remaining as a pawn to other powers or to forge its own path under its own power, while avoiding angering states and blocs that prop the regional economy up.

How well the continent is able to play this balancing act may well dictate the course of events and the lives of billions of Africans for years to come.

Article written by Adam Chege

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